Data Releases

Consumer Price Index

• The 1.6% monthly gain in Education and communication is the largest on record.
• Core CPI (ex food & energy): up 2.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since March 2021.

Producer Price Index

Employment Situation

• Average hourly earnings: up 3.1% from a year ago — the slowest pace since May 2021.
• Not in labor force: −551,000 on the month — the biggest drop since October 2020.

ADP National Employment Report

• Mid-sized establishments (50-249): 5 straight months of increase.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover

• Quits: −157,000 on the month — the biggest drop since April 2025.

Productivity and Costs

• Nonfarm business labour productivity: up 2.2% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2025.

Employment Cost Index

• Wages and salaries, private industry: up 3.1% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q1 2021.
• Total compensation, all civilian workers: up 3.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2021.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial claims, 4-week average: 5 straight weeks of decline.
• Continuing claims: 3 straight weeks of decline.

Advance Retail Sales

• Sporting goods, hobby, books: highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• General merchandise stores: up 4.5% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2023.

Consumer Credit (G.19)

• Nonrevolving credit growth: highest since June 2023 (37 months).
• The 0.4% monthly gain in Nonrevolving credit (auto and student loans) is the biggest since March 2025.

Gross Domestic Product

• GDP implicit price deflator: up 4.4% from a year ago — the fastest pace since Q1 2023.
• PCE chain price index: up 3.9% from a year ago — the fastest pace since Q2 2023.

Personal Income and Outlays

• The 0.6% monthly drop in Nondurable goods is the biggest since January 2024.
• The 0.2% monthly gain in Real personal income ex transfers is the biggest since July 2025.

Pending Home Sales

New Residential Construction

• Completions: −420,000 over the past year — the steepest 12-month decline since September 2009.
• Single-family permits: +11,000 over the past year — the largest 12-month gain since May 2024.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

• Single-family housing starts: lowest since November 2022 (44 months).
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: highest since June 2025 (15 months).

Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales: lowest level on record (data back to August 2025).
• Months' supply of inventory: highest level on record (data back to August 2025).

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey

• Freddie Mac 30-year fixed (for comparison): highest since July 2025 (13 months).

New Residential Sales

• Median sales price, new homes: lowest since July 2021 (60 months).
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: highest since July 2025 (13 months).

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index

• 10-City composite (SA): up 2.9% from a year ago — the fastest pace since May 2025.
• 20-City composite (SA): up 2.1% from a year ago — the fastest pace since June 2025.

Factory Orders (M3 Full Report)

• Core capital goods shipments (feeds GDP equipment investment): up 10.4% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2022.
• Inventories: up 2.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since August 2023.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Durable Goods Orders

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to February 1992).
• Inventories: up 2.3% from a year ago — the fastest pace since September 2023.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

• Materials: highest level on record (data back to January 1939).
• Industrial production, total index: highest since January 2019 (90 months).

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

ISM Services PMI

Leading Economic Index

• Leading Economic Index: down 1.1% from a year ago — the shallowest year-over-year decline since July 2022.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Confidence Index

• The 5.9% monthly gain in Present Situation Index is the biggest since October 2024.

FOMC Decision

• Total Federal Reserve assets: up 2.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since September 2022.