Data Releases

Consumer Price Index

• The 1.6% monthly gain in Education and communication is the largest on record.
• Core CPI (ex food & energy): up 2.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since March 2021.

Producer Price Index

Employment Situation

• Average hourly earnings: up 3.0% from a year ago — the slowest pace since May 2021.
• Professional and business services: +123,000 over the past year — the largest 12-month gain since June 2023.

ADP National Employment Report

• Mid-sized establishments (250-499): highest level on record (data back to January 2010).
• Mid-sized establishments (50-249): highest since September 2025 (12 months).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover

• Layoffs and discharges: −191,000 over the past year — the steepest 12-month decline since March 2024.

Productivity and Costs

• Nonfarm business labour productivity: up 2.2% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2025.

Employment Cost Index

• Wages and salaries, private industry: up 3.1% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q1 2021.
• Total compensation, all civilian workers: up 3.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2021.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial claims, 4-week average: 5 straight weeks of decline.
• Continuing claims: 3 straight weeks of decline.

Consumer Credit (G.19)

• Revolving credit growth: lowest since November 2024 (21 months).
• The 0.4% monthly drop in Revolving credit (credit cards) is the biggest since March 2025.

Personal Income and Outlays

• Durable goods: up 7.3% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2022.
• Personal saving rate: lowest since November 2022 (45 months).

Gross Domestic Product

• Real GDP growth (q/q, SAAR) · Q1 2025: revised up from −0.6% to 0.1%.
• Real GDP growth (q/q, SAAR) · Q1 2024: revised up from 0.8% to 1.4%.

Advance Retail Sales

• Sporting goods, hobby, books: highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• General merchandise stores: up 4.5% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2023.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey

• Freddie Mac 30-year fixed (for comparison): highest since January 2025 (20 months).
• ARM share of applications: 3 straight months of increase.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index

• National home price index (NSA): up 1.9% from a year ago — the fastest pace since June 2025.
• 10-City composite (SA): up 2.9% from a year ago — the fastest pace since May 2025.

New Residential Sales

• Median sales price, new homes: down 5.8% from a year ago — the steepest year-over-year decline since July 2025.
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: highest since July 2025 (13 months).

Pending Home Sales

New Residential Construction

• Completions: −420,000 over the past year — the steepest 12-month decline since September 2009.
• Single-family permits: +11,000 over the past year — the largest 12-month gain since May 2024.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

• Single-family housing starts: lowest since November 2022 (44 months).
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: highest since June 2025 (15 months).

Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales: lowest level on record (data back to August 2025).
• Months' supply of inventory: highest level on record (data back to August 2025).

Factory Orders (M3 Full Report)

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• Core capital goods shipments (feeds GDP equipment investment): up 11.3% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2022.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Inventories: 3 straight months of decline.

Durable Goods Orders

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• Inventories: up 3.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since August 2023.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

• Industrial production, total index: highest since January 2019 (91 months).
• Utilities: up 6.2% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2025.

ISM Services PMI

• Employment crossed above the 50 breakeven line (47.8 to 50.1).
• Prices paid: 3 straight months of increase.

Leading Economic Index

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Consumer Confidence Index

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

FOMC Decision

• Total Federal Reserve assets: up 2.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since September 2022.