Data Releases

Producer Price Index

• The 0.3% monthly drop in PPI final demand is the biggest since October 2023.
• The 1.4% monthly drop in Final demand goods is the biggest since July 2022.

Consumer Price Index

• The 1.0% monthly drop in Electricity is the biggest since April 2014.
• The 0.4% monthly drop in CPI-U, all items is the biggest since April 2020.

Employment Cost Index

• Wages and salaries, private industry: up 3.1% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q1 2021.
• Total compensation, all civilian workers: up 3.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2021.

Employment Situation

• Leisure and hospitality: −61,000 on the month — the biggest drop since December 2020.
• Labor force participation rate: lowest since March 2021 (62 months).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover

• Job openings: highest since May 2024 (24 months).

ADP National Employment Report

• Private payroll employment: +808,000 over the past year — the largest 12-month gain since March 2025.

Productivity and Costs

• Unit labour costs: up 0.5% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q3 2019.
• Hourly compensation: up 3.3% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q1 2023.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial claims, 4-week average: 5 straight weeks of decline.
• Continuing claims: 3 straight weeks of decline.

Gross Domestic Product

• GDP implicit price deflator: up 4.3% from a year ago — the fastest pace since Q1 2023.
• PCE chain price index: up 3.8% from a year ago — the fastest pace since Q2 2023.

Personal Income and Outlays

• The 0.1% monthly drop in PCE price index is the biggest since April 2020.
• Personal saving rate: lowest since June 2022 (48 months).

Advance Retail Sales

• Motor vehicle and parts dealers: highest level on record (data back to January 1992).
• Sporting goods, hobby, books: highest level on record (data back to January 1992).

Consumer Credit (G.19)

• The 4.9 point fall in Total credit growth is the largest since December 2023.
• Revolving credit growth: lowest since November 2024 (18 months).

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index

New Residential Sales

• The 3.3% monthly drop in Median sales price, new homes is the biggest since June 2025.
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 5 straight months of increase.

Existing Home Sales

New Residential Construction

• Multifamily starts (5+ units): +222,000 on the month — the biggest gain since January 1985.
• Housing starts: +228,000 on the month — the biggest gain since May 2023.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 5 straight months of increase.
• Single-family housing starts: 3 straight months of decline.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Durable Goods Orders

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to February 1992).
• Ex transportation: up 11.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since March 2022.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

• Mining: highest level on record (data back to January 1919).
• Industrial production, total index: highest since March 2019 (87 months).

Factory Orders (M3 Full Report)

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to February 1992).
• Durable goods ex transportation: up 11.0% from a year ago — the fastest pace since March 2022.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• The 10.5% monthly gain in Consumer sentiment index is the biggest since June 2025.

FOMC Decision

• Total Federal Reserve assets: up 1.4% from a year ago — the fastest pace since October 2022.