Data Releases

Producer Price Index

• Final demand goods: highest level on record (data back to January 2010).
• Final demand energy: highest level on record (data back to January 2010).

Consumer Price Index

• Core goods (commodities ex food & energy): highest level on record (data back to January 2010).
• New vehicles: highest level on record (data back to January 2010).

Employment Cost Index

• Wages and salaries, private industry: up 3.1% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q1 2021.
• Total compensation, all civilian workers: up 3.4% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2021.

Employment Situation

• Average hourly earnings: up 3.0% from a year ago — the slowest pace since May 2021.
• Professional and business services: +123,000 over the past year — the largest 12-month gain since June 2023.

ADP National Employment Report

• Mid-sized establishments (250-499): highest level on record (data back to January 2010).
• Mid-sized establishments (50-249): highest since September 2025 (12 months).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover

• Layoffs and discharges: −191,000 over the past year — the steepest 12-month decline since March 2024.

Productivity and Costs

• Nonfarm business labour productivity: up 2.2% from a year ago — the slowest pace since Q2 2025.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial claims, 4-week average: 5 straight weeks of decline.
• Continuing claims: 3 straight weeks of decline.

Gross Domestic Product

• Real gross private domestic investment: up 7.9% from a year ago — the fastest pace since Q2 2022.
• Real net exports: down 33.2% from a year ago — the steepest year-over-year decline since Q1 2025.

Advance Retail Sales

• Gasoline stations: highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• Ex motor vehicles and parts: up 7.2% from a year ago — the fastest pace since October 2022.

Consumer Credit (G.19)

• Revolving credit growth: lowest since November 2024 (21 months).
• The 0.4% monthly drop in Revolving credit (credit cards) is the biggest since March 2025.

Personal Income and Outlays

• Personal saving rate: lowest since October 2022 (47 months).

New Residential Sales

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: highest since January 2025 (20 months).

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index

• 10-City composite (SA): up 3.6% from a year ago — the fastest pace since April 2025.
• National home price index (NSA): up 2.1% from a year ago — the fastest pace since May 2025.

Pending Home Sales

New Residential Construction

• Single-family permits: lowest since March 2023 (42 months).
• Multifamily starts (5+ units): −122,000 over the past year — the steepest 12-month decline since June 2024.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

• Housing Market Index: lowest since June 2012 (172 months).
• Current sales conditions: lowest since June 2012 (172 months).

Existing Home Sales

• Inventory of homes for sale: highest since November 2019 (81 months).

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey

• Freddie Mac 30-year fixed (for comparison): highest since January 2025 (20 months).
• ARM share of applications: 3 straight months of increase.

Durable Goods Orders

• Shipments: up 9.4% from a year ago — the fastest pace since October 2022.
• Inventories: up 3.4% from a year ago — the fastest pace since August 2023.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

• Mining: highest level on record (data back to January 1919).
• Utilities: highest level on record (data back to January 1939).

Factory Orders (M3 Full Report)

• Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex aircraft): highest level on record (data back to January 2005).
• Core capital goods shipments (feeds GDP equipment investment): up 11.3% from a year ago — the fastest pace since February 2022.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Inventories: 3 straight months of decline.

Leading Economic Index

• Lagging Economic Index: highest level on record (data back to July 2025).
• Coincident Economic Index: 3 straight months of increase.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

• The 4.0 point rise in Inflation as single most important problem is the largest since July 2024.

ISM Services PMI

• Employment crossed above the 50 breakeven line (47.8 to 50.1).
• Prices paid: 3 straight months of increase.

Consumer Confidence Index

• The 7.7% monthly gain in Present Situation Index is the biggest since October 2024.
• The 8.9% monthly gain in Consumer Confidence Index is the biggest since May 2025.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment index: 3 straight months of decline.
• Inflation expectations, next 12 months: 3 straight months of increase.

FOMC Decision

• Total Federal Reserve assets: up 2.5% from a year ago — the fastest pace since September 2022.