Economic Impact Group, LLC Economic Data Brief
 
Housing

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index — October 2026

Released October 19, 2026 · NAHB / Wells Fargo · full release · charts & history on EconomicsGuru
Housing Market Index fell by 3.0 pts in October 2026 to 29.0, −8.0 pts from a year ago. Prior month: 32.0. Prior periods were revised in 5 series — figures below reflect that.
HMI
29.0
▼ −3.0 pts m/m
· −8.0 pts y/y
Current sales
33.0
▼ −2.0 pts m/m
· −6.0 pts y/y
Expectations
32.0
▼ −5.0 pts m/m
· −22.0 pts y/y
Buyer traffic
18.0
▼ −5.0 pts m/m
· −7.0 pts y/y

Revision check

REVISIONS DETECTED (5) — since last report. Every change below is calculated on the revised figures.
Single-family housing starts · July 2026808→853▲ +45,000
Midwest · September 202644.0→43.0▼ −1.0 pts
30-year fixed mortgage rate · September 20266.7%→6.9%▲ +0.1 pp
Single-family housing starts · June 2026897→902▲ +5,000
Single-family housing starts · May 2026882→889▲ +7,000

Key figures

Headline →October 2026September 2026M/M chgM/M %Y/Y chgY/Y %12-period trend
Housing Market Index29.032.0▼ −3.0 pts▼ −9.4%▼ −8.0 pts▼ −21.6%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current sales conditions33.035.0▼ −2.0 pts▼ −5.7%▼ −6.0 pts▼ −15.4%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sales expectations, next 6 months32.037.0▼ −5.0 pts▼ −13.5%▼ −22.0 pts▼ −40.7%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Traffic of prospective buyers18.023.0▼ −5.0 pts▼ −21.7%▼ −7.0 pts▼ −28.0%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trend bars show the level over the last 13 periods; the latest period is highlighted.
Regional indexes (3-month moving average) →October 2026September 2026M/M chgM/M %Y/Y chgY/Y %12-period trend
Northeast38.039.0▼ −1.0 pts▼ −2.6%▼ −8.0 pts▼ −17.4%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MidwestREVISED40.043.0▼ −3.0 pts▼ −7.0%▼ −2.0 pts▼ −4.8%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
South30.031.0▼ −1.0 pts▼ −3.2%▼ −1.0 pts▼ −3.2%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
West26.028.0▼ −2.0 pts▼ −7.1%▼ −2.0 pts▼ −7.1%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trend bars show the level over the last 13 periods; the latest period is highlighted.

What stood out

  • Housing Market Index: lowest since June 2012 (172 months).
  • Current sales conditions: lowest since June 2012 (172 months).
  • Traffic of prospective buyers: lowest since April 2020 (78 months).
  • Sales expectations, next 6 months: down 40.7% from a year ago — the steepest year-over-year decline since January 2023.
  • Northeast: lowest since February 2023 (44 months).

Full detail

Show every category and subcategory
Full detail — builder incentives and market context →October 2026September 2026M/M chgM/M %Y/Y chgY/Y %
Share of builders cutting prices43.0%38.0%▲ +5.0 pp—▪ ——
Average price reduction6.0%6.0%▪ 0.0 pp—▪ ——
Share using sales incentives65.0%66.0%▼ −1.0 pp—▪ ——
30-year fixed mortgage rateREVISED
Freddie Mac PMMS weekly average, via FRED
7.4%6.9%▲ +0.5 pp—▲ +1.1 pp—
Single-family housing startsREVISED
SAAR, thousands of units — Census, for context
918853▲ +65,000▲ +7.6%▲ +45,000▲ +5.2%

Sources

Economic Impact Group, LLC
Economic research for developing communities
Prepared 2026-10-19 14:30 UTC. Green marks an increase, red a decrease — direction only, not good or bad.